of the line is all the way at the end of this block. it is a three-hour wait, and 2:00 has come and gone. it's the hour when early voting ends today, ends across the state. so the last person in line will get to vote. all these people will get to vote. they're trying to get about a block away from here, which is the entrance to the board of elections. already today more than 650 people have voted early here. across the state more than 1.6 million people have voted early, either with a mail-in absentee ballot about 1.3 million, and half a million have voted in person like all these people standing in line here. here in cincinnati they have been standing in line for hours in the cold. >> this election is so crucial to our country, and i have to do my part. >> reporter: why vote early? why not wait until foam? >> it's a little more convenient, a little more convenient. and i was hoping to beat the lines. unfortunately, that didn't work

out the way i planned. >> reporter: so there is every vote counts. they're standing in lines to make sure that their votes do count. the latest ohio poll from the university of cincinnati released this morning shows this race a statistical dead heat. the president has a 1.5 percentage-point lead, well within the margin of error. this battleground state has been bombarded with television ads. here in cincinnati alone, more than 9800 ads since the beginning of october. that works out to be about 338 a day. tamron, put another way, if you sat down and watched all the ads back to back, it would take you three and a half days. tamron. >> we know we're not going to do that, but what i have to found out from you, john, is why there are long lines. i know there were changes with early voting rules. we'll talk about what happened in florida as well. you have three to four hours. people have jobs and have places to go, but they also want to

vote. it is utterly important. what's going on there? >> reporter: in ohio there is only one early voting center for every county. so, for instance, a couple of weeks ago i was in dlcolumbus where the early voting center is outside of columbus. it was the same scene. there's only one center in each county. a lot of people want it to vote early. some had to vote early because of work schedules tomorrow, and that's why the lines are so long. tamron. >> thank you very much in cincinnati. greatly appreciate your time. for the candidates themselves, this is it. right now president obama just landed in ohio, the state where you saw those long lines just a second ago, after a morning stop in wisconsin. mitt romney is headed to his second stop in virginia. the president will close out his final day of campaigning in iowa, the state that pushed him into the national spotlight. mitt romney will make his land stand later today in his home away from home, new hampshire. for both men months of

campaigning and hand-shaking comes down to these final events tonight. >> you may be frustrated at the pace of change. i promise you, so am i sometimes. you know that i say what i mean and i mean what i say. >> if you're tired of being tired, then i ask you to vote for change. help us win this. paul ryan and i going to bring real change to america from day one. >> joining me now is anne kornbluth and michael skirmonish and chris kofinis. we haven't had a chance to talk with you for a couple of days. your studio was affected by the storm, like so many who planned to vote in new jersey and new york. we'll get to that. what's your feeling right now? you sat back out of the media glare and digest this as a regular voter in some ways. >> i think that passion is the

intangible. you can't measure. you can't poll passion. i buy into the numbers because they seem to be fairly uniform, that it's within a whisker on a popular vote contest. there's an advantage for president obama. the one intangible for governor romney is the level of passion xhfs on the president's side four years ago but is on governor romney's side come together. what does it mean? it means the president is a favorite going into it, but i wouldn't be surprised by any outcome come wednesday. >> let me bring you in on this, anne. everybody says they have the best game on the ground and have one with enthusiastic i. to play what stephanie cutter said regarding mitt romney winning pennsylvania. let's listen to what she had to say. >> the map can be redrawn as you all proved. >> they can be. it can be expanded, but i don't think there's any objective evidence mitt romney has expanded that map.

the thought of him going into pennsylvania and winning pennsylvania is just not based in reality. >> what is reality right now, ann? will we not know it until tomorrow night, perhaps maybe the next day? >> i think you're absolutely right we won't know it right away. measures the ground game, especially for reporters who have certain numbers of people out in the field is incredibly difficult. you can hear the campaigns talk about how many offices they opened and doors they've knocked on and phone calls they made. that doesn't tell you how that translates into a futurnout operation on election day. you can measure some early votes in some states if you want to count that as the ground game. the only one to know is tomorrow late in the day when we see actual numbers come in and one sign was right. >> chris, let me bring you in. "the des moines register" has president obama 47/42. we have new polls out of ohio, and they have a poll of ohio voters.

president obama up 50%, 48%. chuck todd said we can learn a lot about polls, but we'll perhaps learn more about where these men will close out tonight. new hampshire for governor romney, iowa for president obama. we're waiting to confirm actually, chris, whether or not mitt romney plans to make an unprecedented stop on the final day in ohio tomorrow, the day people are going out most to vote. >> well, you know, the last two stops with iowa for the president and new hampshire for governor romney were supposed to be these symbolic exclamation points to the campaign. if governor romney is doing a last stop on election day, which at least in my memory i haven't seen before. >> i was told in 2008 president obama did it in indiana. this is the ap reporting that romney will be in ohio. in 2008 it was indiana for president obama. >> that was more symbolic considering where the race was. in ohio it's clear it's down to the hair. in most of these states, in

particular in iowa and nevada, democrats have it locked up with early vote. in ohio they have a good position with early vote, but it depends on who turns out. republicans are coming out in big numbers in the rural areas, and the question i think for democrats is, how do we do in those urban areas, it particular the top ten counties? the thing i would like to stress is, you know, when you have an election that is this close and it's pretty obvious to say that the obvious, but it is going to be turnout, and democrats have got to be really focused and that is individual democrats coming out to vote. do not believe that this thing is over by any stretch of the imagination. this is going to be a very tight election. >> who doesn't believe that at this point, chris? >> you know, i sometimes hear when i see these pundits talk about their forecasts about what the election is going to be, i get it. if you look at the real clear politics averages, you can make that prediction. i'll make that prediction and think president obama will win.

when you have so many polls clustered around the margin of error, it really falls to turnout. that's what both campaigns are focused on and that's why individual voters have to be focused on it. their vote matters, especially in key battlegrounds. >> let me bring you in. we talked about a bump after hurricane sandy, the image of president obama with governor christie. according to our first read team, they say if there's a bump it's a bump in obama's direction. the caveat for team obama, al gore in 2000 and gerald ford in '76 had the momentum and ended up losing. both were representing incumbent party. what do you make if any of any comparisons there? >> i think what people liked to see last week in the midst of hurricane sandy was the most port zan of republicans, the man who delivered the keynote address at the convention working with the incumbent president, who is the democratic standard bearer. that's what people most want. when i had the opportunity to

sit down the president recently, the first question i asked was about polarization. what are you prepared to do to get things done and to compromise, regardless of where the blame lies, for that which has taken place up until now? that's why i think it struck a chord. >> let's talk about the things we're seeing and getting a lot of people on facebook, twitter, social media plays a big part. now, these lines in ohio and what happened in florida after the judge extended early voting hours in one florida county after democrats had to sue it to allow for more time because of the extraordinary wait that people were having to suffer through to get their votes in. florida, obviously, we know the hot button point. we know that many people are waiting wednesday morning, depending on who falls short here, to look at reasons why. you have to be concerned when you see a state like ohio and it's importance and some people waiting hours to get in to vote. >> right. i mean, you've seen how

reluctant people have been and how upset people have been to wait for gas in gas lines in a place like new york after a tragedy. will people have that level of greater patience to wait in a voting line, and that's why you've seen democrats be so proactive. so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see both sides paying extremely close attention to where the lines are. ever since 2000 the legal teams have grown and grown and grown, and this is why. there's always an issue. the question is how close is it? if it's very close, then that matters. if it's not, then less so, if you can call the race without that, then less so. >> absolutely. chris, how concerned are you as a democrat? you look at the situation in florida where this battle over extending early voting and a lot of the push regarding changing, if you will, things in place with early voting and absentee voting has come from republicans and in key states. >> i'm concerned. you know, it's one of those

unknowns, and this is the part that i think is really difficult in terms of analyzing and looking at this election. i think the obama campaign was really smart to put a lot of energy and focus on early vote. what we don't know is how these new voting laws and rules are going to complicate election day. what we don't know is how the lines and the turnout complicates election day. if it's a massive turnout, especially in some of these cities, there's a real fight in terms of extending hours. that's where in a close election, especially when you talk about ohio and virginia, we come down to less than 1%, that makes a huge difference. >> absolutely. >> i think it's really important for voters to be patient, and if possible, still early vote. >> michael, let me get you in. some of the good news from the latest poll for governor romney described by the team. it says here he's up with independence on the economy. romney is ahead of obama among independents 47/40. when it comes to the economy, undecideds however are breaking

four president obama. they surveyed 9% of likely voters up for grabs meaning they're undecided and they have a more positive feeling towards president obama than romney. in one part you have good news with governor romney with independents, but the undecideds that we talk about every minute of every day or at least in this poll breaking for obama. >> i think that chuck todd had a good analysis where they pointed out that the racial composition of the voters is really of significance. where is that white vote going to come in? 72%, 73%, 74%? that difference may determine the outcome of the election. one final thought. i'm concerned about the images of lines in florida and i sfoek to a caller who waited two hours in indiana to vote just an hour ago. i'm worried about people who are watching and not in those states and saying to themselves, oh,

boy. this is really a hassle tomorrow. maybe i won't go out. we hope everybody goes out tomorrow. >> michael, ann, chris, thank you so much for your time. up next, the look at the extraordinary measures under way in new jersey to make sure people affected by hurricane sandy can still vote, even as a number of polling places are still closed. but also coming up for you, why nbc's first read team says the bottom line is this. listen to this. watch the white percentage in tomorrow night's exit poll? michael alluded to it. it will tell you, they say, more about where virginia, iowa, or colorado will go. first, today, nate silver of the "new york times" 538 blog forecasts that tomorrow president obama has an 86% chance of winning re-election. the president will win 307 electoral college votes, governor romney will win 231. you can join our conversation about the election on twitter. you can always find me

at @tamronhall and my team at @newsnation. use the #nbc2012. we'll have more coming up after a quick break. our abundant natural gas is already saving us money, producing cleaner electricity, putting us to work here in america and supporting wind and solar. though all energy development comes with some risk, we're committed to safely and responsibly producing natural gas. it's not a dream. america's natural gas... putting us in control of our energy future, now.

welcome back. in addition to voter turnout, our first read team says the race of those voters, the ethnic background could be the true determining factor on who wins the white house. take a look at the two scenarios. first, if white voters make up 74% of the vote, if this happens and both sides maximize their margins, meaning governor romney wins by 20 points and the president wins minorities by 60%, the president would walkway with the popular vote by a fraction of the point.

the same is tree for governor romney if whites are 75% of the electorate. in other words, the lynchpin in this race could be turnout among white voters. let me bring in the president of latino vote. we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's

campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to see is the not only is nevada up in place, it's a safe bet it's part of the obama camp, but because we have to modernize our polling system the same think in ohio, virginia and florida where you have big numbers of la tonos numbers were there in 2010 and pollsters are missing as well. >> mccain, bush hispanic vote, john mccain 31% of the latino vote and 2004 george w. bush took 40%. mitt romney in the latest polling 24%.

it is not just about immigration we see this regression, if these numbers are correct. >> it's not just about immigration. mitt romney walked into the selection with the latino vote up for grabs. had he made a case for the economy and education and small business talking directly to the latino voter, he would be ahead among the latino vote. in order to win the white house, tamron, you need at least 40% of the latino vote to make it to the white house, and he doesn't have a formula for that. if you look closely at what's happening in ohio, you have 150,000 voters there that are hispanic and you have virginia where mccain is leading there for the governor and has a sophisticated ground operation that helps obama and you have florida. you have over 100,000 registered democrats, more than republicans among the latino vote. >> let me play what presidential historian michael beshlav that was on this weekend. he talked about this divide and

the electorate. let me play it. >> this country is so divided between the two candidates, not necessarily only by ideas but by gender, economic groups, ethnicity in some cases. i think that is something that the founders would have been horrified by. >> we wanted michael on. he wasn't available. it's interesting that the founders are all white males and mostly very wealthy would have been horrified by what we are seeing, which is this divide where you have latinos, african-americans, unmarried women in this one group and young people, and then on the other side of the equation you have a candidate hoping and his people hoping that whites will make up 75% of the electorate so he can win. >> i think he's leaning towards we're americans first, somehow you create sil lows of americans and that's the most dangerous for our democracy. we see an increasingly generational divide.

in ohio close to 23% of 18 to 39-year-olds are latinos. only 15% are 18 to 39. across the country you start to see increasingly demographic changes where there's younger populations of ethnic latinos and african-americans versus older americans. at the end of the day ilts a maerlt of making sure that every vote counts and people stay in line and participate. >> let me bring in john, the man who knows more about nevada politics than anyone else. six electoral vote. in nevada hispanics account for 27% of the population. so many people have remarked about your unemployment rate there, the foreclosure rate. we were in nevada doing some stories a couple of years ago. every other building it seemed had been abandoned by construction workers there, but even still you're seeing that state, because of the latino vote, really going the way of president obama in the early polling. what are the lessons moving ahead if there are any from your state alone if the numbers are true? >> i think you laid it out

pretty well, tamron. i think we're a microcosm of the nation in that sense. the hispanic vote is 15% of the electorate the last two-cycles. it's likely to be the same. some of the polling has shown president obama up in the hispanic vote by even more than he was in 2008 when exit polls showed he won it by 50 points. if he wasn't anywhere in that neighborhood, 15% of the electorate, you have a difficult time if you're a republican. that goes for the senate race here, too, tamron, now in play. shelley berkeley is a dead heat with dean hall ron. a lot has to do with the hispanic vote. >> john, we greatly appreciate you coming on. hopefully we have you get some reaction with us after it all goes down tomorrow. thank you, john. we'll see what happens in nevada and the lessons to be learned. still ahead former new mexico governor and u.n. ambassador bill richardson will join me live. he'll respond to senator john mccain's accusation he made this

morning that veterans are very angry over benghazi and it will cost the president votes in florida. >> but i have never seen veterans as upset and angry as they are over benghazi. >> plus, the redskins record for their last home game has successfully predicted 17 of the last 18 white house winners. what does it mean for president obama? when football and politics collide, that means we're desperate to find out the solution of this election. this is just one of the things we thought you should know. ♪

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voting equipment is on the move right now to shelters in one county to make sure people affected by hurricane sandy get to cast their vote. governor christie announced that people displaced by the storm will be allowed to vote by e-mail or fax. that's the first time ever athat a u.s. citizen not in the military is allowed to do so. ron allen is at the county board of elections office in jersey city with the very latest. what's the climate there, ron? >> reporter: tamron, we've met a number of people displaced, without power, orde dealing wit other kinds of difficulties because of the storm but yet, come here to vote. there's a long line of people here all day. the bottom line is the state of new jersey is trying to make it as easy as possible for people to vote. that's why you can vote by e-mail or fax. it's a very confused situation, though, because at this point at this late hour they're taking an inventory of polling places to see which ones can operate. power is an essential part of the whole situation. in some places they con stall

date polling stations together and they make makeshift centers and parking lots with tents bringing in emergency generators to make it possible for people to vote. the bottom line is they're telling people to check the websites, but if you have any doubt go to your polling place, your usual polling place, and you can vote there or instructions on where to go. how this will affect turnout, we have no idea. you think it would be depressed somewhat, but that can be significant. at this point today the county offices have been open all weekend across the state. that's never happened before. just another example, like fax and e-mail, to make it possible. at the back end of this makes counting all the votes much more complicated because some people have paper ballots and provisionalal ballots submitted. when we know who will win new jersey at the top of the ticket and lower down for congressional races, statewide races, school board races, it's a confused and complicated situation here. >> ron, to add to that, as i

understand it, there are voter i.d. activists there objecting to e-mail voting because saying there's no proven verification system in place as a result. >> reporter: exactly. e-mail voting is something everyone thought would be in the future, but it's here now. people think that they can safeguard the system. we were talking with senator menendez running for re-election the other day, running for re-election and talked to him earlier. he says he thinks its better to give people the opportunity to vote and then try and protect the system and integrity of the system than disenfranchise people. the idea is to make it easier, see how it goes. people are leery of what can happen. they think there's more value to let people vote as opposed to not letting them vote. >> thank you very much. have breaking news to report. ap is reporting romney campaign to not only go to clecleveland,

ohio, but a stop in pittsburgh on election day. we're going to talk with atlanta mayor and president obama supporter kasim reed. i'll find out his thoughts on the fact the romney campaign is setting up shop if you will in the last minute in cleveland, ohio as well as pittsburgh, pennsylvania. i'll talk with him about the president's ground game one day out. first lady michelle obama is rallying supporters in north carolina and florida, while ann romney will join her husband at tonight's rally in new hampshire. be sure to check out our "news nation" tumblr page. you'll find behind the scene pictures this election day eve at newsnation.tumblr.com. my insurance rates are probably gonna double. but, dad, you've got... [ voice of dennis ] allstate. with accident forgiveness, they guarantee your rates won't go up

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so when digging through our final nbc/"wall street journal" poll before the election, our first read team noticed some familiar numbers. for one, the president is exactly where george w. bush was at this point in the national race. both incumbents at 48% and the challengers at 47%. bush was at 49% at the time in 2008. obviously, all good news for president obama. wrong year. let's go to mark murray to discuss trends. we have to talk about the breaking news. governor romney going to cleveland, ohio, pittsburgh, pennsylvania on election day. what's behind this move? >> this is a move they need more votes going into ohio and pennsylvania, which was seen as a way to try to expand the map. i'm not sure you necessarily do this if you're ahead, and so, of course, mitt romney ends up wins pennsylvania, he ends up winning ohio, this kind of campaigning

would be brilliant. >> why wouldn't you do this if you're ahead? let's play under the guise of what they say is rack rate. if their polling shows they're ahead. why is this a sign of vulnerability? >> you're trying to shake as many trees as possible and shake all the leaves. you don't have the votes you need to have in your column, particularly in these two states. if you're mitt romney you want to kind of project that you have some momentum and they're trying to do this. this seems a move on somebody who is behind, not ahead. >> let's talk about comparisons with 2004. i think it might be the only time that president obama supporters would want them compared to george w. bush, the mere mention but the reality is you're looking at the numbers and where both of these men as incumbents stand. >> one of the our pollsters said, these numbers were haunting. just how similar they were, and it shows you, one, how close the race is. two it shows you that president obama does have a path to victory as george w. bush had. bush won the popular vote 51% to

48%. president obama's numbers match up with that. of course, tamron, as you know, it came down to one state, ohio, in that election. it points to president obama has a path to victory, but it's tight. >> all signs point to ohio yet again. >> that's right. if you look at the totality of all the polls out there right now, president obama has a slight advantage in ohio. the romney folks say the race is close. they're unable to lead in one single ohio poll. it wasn't too long ago we went back to the 2004 race. bush was leading in most of those ohio polls, but john kerry was lead inning a few and there were some tied. all these polls right now point to president obama with the slight advantage in the buckeye state. >> thank you very much. now let me bring in bill richardson, who has served as u.n. ambassador and energy secretary under president bill clinton. thank you so much for your time. >> thank you, tamron. >> absolutely. let's first talk about your feeling, the ground game. both sides are saying that they

have a winning night ahead of them. what is your feeling for president obama? is it that firewall we've talked so much about in ohio mainly because of the auto bailout? >> yes, i think that the reason governor romney is going to pennsylvania is that it doesn't look too good in ohio. i've always said, tamron, i'm a wernstern westerner. i think the hispanic vote you talked about earlier is key in the president winning nevada, which it's a huge hispanic population. also, taking colorado. i see new mexico's going to be in the president's column, and i think it's going to help in florida. the non-cuban hispanic vote. i think the president is going to take that vote close to 75%, and that will be a margin of victory. >> you know, it's interesting. we'll talk about it more depending on who wins, but this conversation on the latino vote and how even some within the republican party have said that

governor romney and his team have basically ignored alatino voters, and it could be to their peril in a big way. for the republican party, moving ahead here, especially not just my home state and other places but as you pointed out, colorado, nevada where the west was won is because of latinos if you look at the math. >> well, that's right. i fell that during the republican primaries the very harsh anti-latino immigration rhetoric was going to be very costly unless governor romney somewhere in the convention or in the debates basically said, well, i'm going to look at reforming immigration. just an open-minded position, or maybe you picked senator rubio. but it's a strategy that makes no sense, because president bush recognized that strategy and bush got 41% of the latino vote against senator kerry. >> he was also governor of

texas, chwhich would have been changed his perspective and the importance of that group. let's play what john mccain said this morning on "morning joe." he's brig up the investigation of benghazi and he believes it will have an impact on what we see in florida with some voters. let me play it. >> you're seeing some anger and a lot of enthusiasm out there on the part of veterans and active duty military. how much that actually matters, i don't know. you know, joe, there's 1.6 million veterans in the state of florida, and i've never seen them as fired up as they are now. >> he says he's never seen active duty, retired vets more fired up over benghazi than afghanistan, iraq. he's never seen this according to him. this is not to diminish the importance of investigating what happened in benghazi, but he says he's never seen vets so upset than over benghazi. what is your response to that? >> well, i have a lot of respect

for senator mccain. i'm not going to quibble with what he said. what i do know, tamron, is that general petraeus, who is head of the cia, has released some information that basically shows that a lot of american entities and agencies wanted to help their comrades. we have to conclude the investigation. we can't politicize it. i think it's important that we put aside the politics. the president wants to get all the facts of what happened, and you know, general petraeus, cia director, i think they're going to release as much as they can. but i was very concerned by the oversight committee in the house releasing names of some of our libyan assets that we had there very rapidly. so let's not politicize this issue. >> your words are probably comforting to some, but it is perhaps too late as this issue has been politicized at this point.

four lives are host, and hopefully we will get all the details necessary at some point. thank you very much, sir. it's always a pleasure to have your insight. thank you. >> thank you. atlanta's mayor will join us next. plus, the election aftermath, how "the daily beast" thinks the right will react if romney loses and how the left will react if president obama loses. first thashgsz a lot going on today. here things you should know. a new poll shows massachusetts closely watched senate race is as close as ever. the poll shows that republican senator scott brown and democratic challenger liz warren are deadlocked. this is the only poll in the last nine to show the senator up at all. the pew research number as released the final numbers. after calling it dead even in late october, it finds president obama is leading mitt romney,

5 50-47. everybody is a coy boys fan, but i digress. you may be above the people that don't believe that poll. according to the rule dubd the redskins rule, the last home game before an election has predicted 17 of the last 18 presidents, a win for the skins, and mitt a win for the incumbent president and a loss means the challenger lost. the skin losts which according to the rule means mitt romney would be the next president. the last time it was wrong john kerry lost to george w. bush in 2004. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare,

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that may be right for you. as you know both campaigns are relying on the ground game to get out the vote and propel them to victory tomorrow. team obama claims that it's made phone calls or visits to more than 125 million voters, while the romney camp claims 50 million voter contacts. despite that huge gap, the romney campaign says the voter

intensity will lead them to victory. >> there's an intensity factor out there on the side of the republicans that is a significant gap. we see it out on the ground. we see it when people are knocking on doors and making the phone calls. >> and joining me now is kasim reed, a top surrogate for president obama. thank you for your time. >> glad to be with you, tamron. >> you have romney campaign political director saying that they have the intensity, it belongs to them. >> well, you know, i wish him the best. i think he's pretty funny, though. it's not showing up in the data in the election results. all of the early vote results show that folks are turning out in droves for our president. as you stated, we made 125 million phone calls in the battlegrounds and across the country we have 5,000 launch sites. if you look at florida, voting in broward county, we won't talk about dade, is up more than 25%,

and we're already surpassing the 2008 levels. the republicans are clearly running a confidence game. they're losing. they're losing nationally according to your own data and losing the battlegrounds. they have to say something and they have to make up the enthusiasm issue. that's not the case at all. >> we just got the news at the top of this hour that governor romney plans to hit ohio as well as pennsylvania tomorrow on election day. as we mentioned, 2008 president obama went to indiana, but as mark murray described it, that was just to run up the score. it was not because he was in peril in that state. different circumstances. in the 11th hour governor romney is in ohio and pennsylvania. >> i mean, i think that it shows that he's desperate. governor romney needs a royal flush. we're not in one of his campaign contributors casino. he's not going to win. every battleground right now with the exception of north carolina, the president is ahead.

folks at home can ask themselves a very simple question. if you were walking in a room and you were running for president of the united states, would you rather be told that you're aahead nationally and you're ahead in every battleground state with the exception of north carolina perhaps, which are even, or would you rather be told that you're losing almost everywhere? that's the hand that mitt romney has. he's losing almost everywhere, and so i wish him the best on his trip to pennsylvania. he'll be losing there as well. >> mayor kasim reed, thank you so much. it's always a pleasure to you talk with. sure we'll talk to you very soon. thank you. in our gut check, it's next. "the daily beast's" mike tamaski on what he calls the gop freak-out if governor romney loses. you can join the "news nation" on facebook. we're at facebook.com/newsnation. michael up with what he says will freak out the gop.

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welcome back with both sides braces themselves for a long election night. michael tamaski joins us, and he said we can expect a gop freak-out if the election does not go their way. let me bring in michael right now to talk about his article. thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> how do you explain the freak-out? >> it starts with the fact that from my experience, tamron, a lot of conservatives, rank and file conservatives -- i get them from reading my conservative commenters on my plog ablog and conservative bloggers, they seem absolutely 100% ironclad convinced mitt romney will win the election in a way that i don't think most liberals i read are. most liberals do think obama is

probably going to win, but there's a sliver of doubt. the conservatives are like no, way, man, romney's got this. they're setting themselves up for if it turns out not their way being outraged by the result, suspecting some foul play in the result, and spending the next four years getting revenge for the result. >> so you don't that applies to the other side? you say members of the gop are absolutely certain romney can win. i can give you my twitter feed. more than enough obama supporters are certain without a doubt that the president will be re-elected. it's interesting. politico has an article that says if obama loses, kind of a counter to what you said, they say unlike republicans many of whom have no particular love for their nominee, democrats admire and sympathize with the president understanding he came into office the at a difficult time. if obama loses democrats would be leaderless for the first time in half a decade. >> i guess that's true, but it's going to depend on the circumstances, too.

if there's some kind of -- if this drags on for hours or days and there's some kind of florida-style sha nan begenanig people are either side will be really upset. people are motivated more by hatred than love and admiration, and it's not a news flash that the conservative base really hates barack obama. if he does win re-election, i think that base is going to drive their representatives, want republicans in washington, in congress to put up just a big a front of opposition to him as they did in the first term, if not bigger. >> interesting, michael. i appreciate your article. it was great having you on. people should check it out and see what the freak-out could possibly look like. thank you. great pleasure to have you on. so for our "news nation" gut check today, we want to know what your gut is telling bu the results of tomorrow's election. what do you feel? you heard michael tamaski give insight from his perspective on

what's a freak-out moment. politico says for democrats they would be leaderless if the president did not win. go to facebook.com/newsnation and post your comment we're going read them and reveal them on air tomorrow. that does it for "news nation" live from democracy plaza. tomorrow we have special orange can diana da yet, ann kornblut and steve days as well as steve boykin. a big, diverse line-up for you. "the cycle" is next. [ male announcer ] when was the last time something made your jaw drop?

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